Abe on Covid: successful arsonist turned failed firefighter
Plus the rumoured real reason for his resignation
The late former prime minister of Japan Shinzo Abe, assassinated last week during an election speech, left a mixed but ultimately negative legacy in terms of Covid policy.
Early in the pandemic, Abe was reluctant to introduce strict border controls or engage in South Korean style proactive testing, tracing, and isolating, which led to criticism at home and abroad.
But as hysteria mounted, so did the pressure to “do something.” And that something was to request full school closures in late February 2020…
…which even the pre-Covidian New York Times published criticism of.
The school closures were to resemble the rest of Japan’s Covid polices in various ways. They were ineffective…
…and had negative social consequences.
But because Japan’s Covid “experts” have refused to admit that school closures (and all other anti-Covid measures) aren’t effective and wouldn’t be justified even if they were, school closures are still being repeated by know-nothing politicians.
His administration also introduced the legislation allowing prefectural governors to declare states of emergency (SoE) with the national government’s permission. This led to Japan’s first pointless economy-wrecking SoE during Abe’s administration…
…and the other pointless SoEs and quasi-emergency measures after Abe left office.
He also started Sakoku 2.0 by banning entry to not only foreign travelers but also foreign residents and spouses who were outside Japan at the time.
He also bares some responsibility for Japan’s mask mania due to his distribution of cloth masks, known as Abenomask, to every household. This gimmick was widely derided, but it still helped to perpetuate the lie that sticking any old dirty rag over your face will prevent viruses coming in or out.
During the first SoE, his administration also introduced the New Style of Living guidelines: masks, social distancing, partitions, hand sanitizer, and other pandemic theatre that continues to this day.
But he did try to fix some of the economic damage caused by the Covid policies and panic by starting a domestic tourism subsidy scheme called GoTo Travel in July 2029 even in the face of media and opposition criticism.
And despite the predictable histrionics by the media and the performative expressions of caution by Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike, he refused to declare a second SoE or stop the GoTo campaign as cases rose in the second wave.
As cases peaked and fell without the world ending, Abe invited Dr Takao Oki to speak at the Future Investors Conference at the Prime Minister’s Residence.
Dr Oki, a special advisor to the heads of hospitals handling Covid patients, told the high-level attendees what the TV wouldn’t: “From general antibody surveys (0.1-8.0%) and PCR positivity (1-3%), millions of people in Japan have already been infected, and this proves most were asymptomatic. It follows that the fatality rate is about the same as seasonal influenza at 0.02-0.04%…. Because Covid is treated as a Designated Infectious Disease, when people test PCR positive, they need to be isolated, which wastefully burdens health centres and medical facilities…In conclusion, Covid isn’t scary for the Japanese. The people should be enlightened about this and stop worrying about the ups and downs of PCR positive numbers. Hospitals should get financial support. Downgrading Covid from a Designated Infectious Disease will be able to prevent the medical system from collapsing.”
A few weeks later, Abe resigned apparently due to poor health. However, in his resignation speech and in a Twitter thread, he expressed the administration’s apparent intentions towards reassessing Covid’s legal status as a Designated Infectious Disease, which is what allows politicians to implement anti-Covid measures like requests for “self-restraint” from leaving the house.
“Now that there are treatments like Remdesivir, the case fatality rate for people under 50 has gone down to 0.1%. The majority of those who have passed away were over 80. To protect the lives of the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions, the key is measures towards them. “
“Legally, Covid is treated like Level 2 and above infectious diseases such as TB, SARS, and MERS. Based on knowledge gained up to now, along with legislative reform, we’ll reconsider how Covid is treated.”
However, Abe’s successor, Yoshihide Suga, didn’t downgrade Covid. And during the subsequent round of “cases are rising!” hysteria, he suspended GoTo Travel in late December and declared a second SoE and closed the border to visitors from all countries in January. Suga then spent the rest of his premiership prioritising the futile goal of “stopping the spread” rather than renormalising the economy, as evidenced by retail and recreation mobility being lower on average in 2021 than in the second half of 2020.
If you think Abe’s intention to downgrade Covid might have led to him being made to resign, you aren’t alone. But despite all the Internet rumours, this has never been clarified. But I’d be surprised if it turned out Covid’s possible downgrading was actually unrelated.
So what would’ve happened if Abe had stayed and downgraded Covid? Higher probability counterfactuals are: the GoTo campaign would’ve continued into 2021; the economy would likely have grown more 2021 without SoEs being needlessly declared; the Olympics would’ve been held with spectators; and the border would probably have opened properly by now.
Abe again mentioned downgrading Covid to Level 5 in January 2022…
“Caution towards Omicron is needed, but if drugs and vaccines can prevent severe disease, we have the option of treating Covid as a Level 5 infectious disease the same as seasonal influenza.”
…and again in May.
But the proposal didn’t make it into the LDP manifesto.
Ultimately, Abe dug the hole Japan still hasn’t climbed out of, and his attempts to help it get out were too little, too late. But at least he came to the correct conclusion eventually, which is more than can be said for the current Covidiot in charge.
Let’s just hope another of Abe’s wishes, constitutional revision, doesn’t come true either.
Eventually, the economic damage will be so severe that they'll put it in category 5, but the general public sentiment needs to shift quickly. They need to understand that COVID is now a glorified cold and that Japan is a laggard in fully restarting its economy.