Birth & Death data for August: good news and bad news

Our friends at Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare have just released the demographic data for August.

Good News

After five months of noticeable year-on-year (YoY) drops, live births went back up close to the 2021 level. Yeah, baby!

Live births: Blue 2021; Red 2022

Hopefully, this positive trend will continue, since there’s been little change in the number of marriages YoY.

Marriages: Blue 2021; Red 2022

As I mentioned previously, the drop in marriages due to the Covid response in 2020 and 2021 was one cause of the drop in births in the first half of 2022.

Japan's birth rate: still lower but stable

Bad News

In August, deaths were up by 15.1% YoY: 135, 649 vs. 117,804.

Deaths: Blue 2021; Red 2022

What could have possible caused this? The top part of the below graph (hat-tip Kenji Fujikawa) shows monthly all-cause deaths in 2020, 2021, and 2022 along with the 2016-2020 average, highest, and lowest. The bottom part shows 3rd and 4th doses given to over 65s.

Funny how the same coincidence happened twice in the space of 7 months. I wonder if it’ll happen again?

Fifth doses of Covid vaccine start being administered at vaccination centers in Tokyo

I guess we won’t have long to find out.