Death by numbers

A rough estimation of direct Covid deaths in Japan

In response to questions about a record 28 reported Covid deaths in Aichi Prefecture, Governor Hideki Omura pointed out that most of them were elderly with pre-existing conditions and that they didn’t necessarily die from Covid.

[https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/195e67c9d88fcf87dfc5b7ac538fb91cec0236b5]

Data for reported Covid deaths up to Feb 8 2022 shows that he’s certainly right about the age profile.

[https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/en.html]

But like in many other places, a Covid death in Japan is someone who dies after testing PCR+ for Covid regardless of the actual cause of death. So how many people actually died as a direct result of Covid, i.e., in an ICU? Well, where better to look than the Cross ICU Searchable Information System (CRISIS)? Please note that the information below is “not perfect,” but it gives us a rough approximation.

[https://crisis.ecmonet.jp/]

The below graphs show the data for patients who required extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) and mechanical ventilation.

If you’re thinking “Those deceased numbers look a lot smaller than the reported Covid deaths,” you’d be right. The table below compares the numbers of reported Covid deaths (Post-PCR+ death) with the numbers of post-ECMO and mechanical ventilation (MV) deaths. Even if we accept that the post-ECMO/MV deaths are incomplete, that difference is strinkingly clear.

Which leaves us one important question: What did most of these people actually die of? We’ll have to answer that question another day.