The Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) has published the numbers of births, marriages, and deaths in 2021, and they make depressing reading: compared with 2020, there were 29,786 (3.4%) fewer births, 23,341 (4.3%) fewer marriages, and 67,745 (4.9%) more deaths.
It’s worth noting that Japan’s annual numbers of births and deaths have been going in opposite directions for quite a while. There were apparently 15,000 excess deaths due to old age in 2021 [1], possibly carried over from 2020, which saw fewer deaths than expected despite there being a “Once in a Century Pandemic.” Japan also had 15,000 Covid deaths in 2021 compared with 3500 in 2020, but we know how liberally those are counted [2].
[https://mainichi.jp/articles/20220225/k00/00m/040/150000c]
The MHLW acknowledges the effects of the Covid response are partly to blame for fewer marriages [3]. More interestingly, they also hypothesise that the Covid response is also to blame for around 10,000 excess cardiovascular deaths, especially involving heart failure, from January to September 2021 due to people staying at home and not exercising enough. Well, what else were they going to blame?
But they also claim that Japan had 9000 fewer deaths than expected in 2020 thanks to its Covid response (which basically means mask wearing [4]). This makes no sense because excess deaths were lowest January and February 2020, when the Japanese were still living the old normal, because of a very mild flu season. Deaths were clearly in the expected range from April 2020 onward when everyone was wearing masks.
[https://exdeaths-japan.org/en/graph/weekly]
The MHLW will publish the full details of deaths in 2021 by age and cause of death later. I hope you’re looking forward to it as much as I am!
[1] https://mainichi.jp/articles/20220225/k00/00m/040/150000c
[2]
[3] https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2022022501148&g=soc
[4]