Japan's birth rate: still lower but stable
I previously reported that Japan’s birth rate had been significantly lower year-on-year (YoY) between March and May this year and hypothesised that it may have something to do with the you-know-what.
Well, we can add June to the list too, with a 9.2% YoY reduction (64,457 vs 71,031).
On a positive note, the number of live births and YoY change were stable from March through June, rather than progressively declining. This supports Igor Chudov’s observation that any jab-induced fertility decline may be temporary.
Another factor that undoubtedly affects the number of births is the number of marriages, especially in countries like Japan where few babies are born out of wedlock. In July, Chiba and Nakata produced estimates for the effect of the pandemic response on the number of marriages in Japan.
They estimate marriages were 8.7% and 11.2% below the trend-line in 2020 and 2021. By the end of 2022, their basic estimate (yellow line) is a total of 152,000 fewer marriages “due to Covid.” Based on this, they predict 243,000 fewer births over the long term as a result.
But this may actually be an underestimate since marriages aren’t any higher this year, which is more in line with their pessimistic estimate (green line).
Based on the marriage numbers, Chiba and Nakata also estimate the number of births for 2022.
The Jan-June total is 384,942, so the 2022 total is on course to be between the basic estimate (yellow; 780,000) and pessimistic estimate (green; 759,000).
So even if any effects of the pharmaceutical interventions on the birth rate are only temporary, those of the non-pharmaceutical interventions are likely to be long lasting.
So that’s arrivals. What about departures? Well, there’s not much to report for June.
But I have a feeling July might be different.
