Japan's Fourth State of Emergency

Tokyo gets ahead of the curve

After letting people drink alcohol in bars and restaurants again for a few weeks (but only in groups of two for 90 minutes between 11:00 and 19:00), Governor Koike declared yet another state of emergency (SoE) and decided there would be no spectators at the Tokyo Olympics.

[https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/backstories/1711/]

Her decision was influenced by projections by Prof Hiroshi Nishiura (who had predicted up to 420,000 deaths in the first wave) of up to 10,000 severe cases in Tokyo if no SoE was declared and the Olympics were held with spectators present. Better to be safe than sorry.

[https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/146428600d7967a2afd79e7be372580b85374aa1]

So did again ordering bars and restaurants to stop offering alcohol and karaoke keep the curve flat?

Maybe if Tokyo had just extended the third SoE like Okinawa did, the results would’ve been better.

[Figures by Hiroshi Nishiura (yes, the same one as above) for the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare https://www.mhlw.go.jp/content/10900000/000840251.pdf]

But Tokyo definitely outperformed the prefectures containing Japan’s other major cities, right? [Dates indicate start of SoE.]

[Weekly reported cases per 100,000. Data from https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/special/coronavirus/data/]

Oh well. At least the SoE wasn’t declared after the peak for a change.

Better luck next time, Yuriko.