The Japanese fail to take Moderna fully into their hearts

A Modern(a) Romance

[Regular readers might be interested to know my post on Japan’s New Abnormal Tourism has been updated to cover the government’s newly released guidelines for tourists and tour companies, which are even more ridiculous than I thought possible. See here.]

Although AstraZeneca failed to woo the Japanese…

End of an affair: AstraZeneca gets no love in Japan

…Moderna managed to penetrate the government’s heart. Indeed, the government of Japan stayed faithful to Moderna through good times…

…and bad.

In sickness…

…and in death.

And even though others closed their hearts…

“Finland's health authorities announced that men under 30 will not get the Moderna shot, and should get the Pfizer vaccine instead. Sweden banned Moderna for people under the age of 30, and Denmark did the same for people under 18. Instead of issuing a ban, Norway is urging people under 30 to choose Pfizer rather than Moderna. And on Friday, Iceland halted distribution of Moderna in general.”

…the Japanese opened theirs even further.

But even though the government assured young men that the benefits of the relationship outweighed the risks multiple times over (28.8/25.7 vs 834 per million to be exact),…

Rates per million of reported myocarditis/pericarditis in young males after Covid vaccination in Japan up to October 2021 and after Covid infection in Japan and overseas. Graph produced by Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare here

…which was a bit of an exaggeration,…

Number of actual reported cases of myocarditis/pericarditis in males aged 12-19 and 20-19 after Covid vaccination and in males aged 15-39 after Covid infection in Japan up to October 2021. The statistical shenanigans involved in turning 4 cases into 834 per million are explained here.

…the people preferred to have their hearts inflamed by another.

Doses by maker in Japan up to 22nd August 2021

So what was to be done for more Japanese to take Moderna into their hearts? First, the government decided to commit to a longer relationship.

Covid vaccine expiry dates extended from 6 to 9 months. “Quality can be maintained if products are stored appropriately”

Then Japan’s top politicians professed their commitment publicly by saying “I do” to Moderna boosters…

…while the medical staff hopefully took care to ensure no uninvited guests were ushered up the aisle of their arteries.

The media wasn’t immune to Moderna’s charms either. It happily let Moderna show off its hotter antibodies.

But like a guy with a new girlfriend, Moderna didn’t mention a few personal details until after the first few dates.

Moderna Knew Vaccinated People Will Never Acquire Proper Immunity After Breakthrough Infections

The government told the people that it was okay to turn away from Pfizer and hook up with Moderna, as long as they did so quickly….

Covid-19 booster vaccination: speed is more important than brand

…because although heartbreak (and heart damage) may last for years, pharmaceuticals’ expiry dates do not.

Another problem is that after you’ve given your heart to one, it can hurt to give it to another. And if you’re a 16-24 year old male, your heart is about 35.62 times more likely to hurt than if you’d never given it away in the first place.

Abbreviations: IRR, adjusted incidence rate ratio. “For a heterologous schedule (1 dose with BNT162b2 [Pfizer] and the other dose with mRNA-1273 [Moderna])…In males aged 16 to 24 years, 17 myocarditis cases occurred, with an excess number of events of 27.49 (95% CI, 14.41-40.56).”

In the end, even the government seems more interested in a longer relationship with Moderna’s main rival for the people’s hearts.

Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare extends expiry date of Pfizer vaccine to 1 year

But Moderna has a plan to win back Japan’s affection.

But it’s always hard to start anew when the initial feelings are still fresh in the (immunological) memory.

variant specific boosters fail to elicit variant specific response

As for the future, it looks like the Japanese people will have even more suitors.

Let’s just hope the “agony of choice” doesn’t become the “choice of agony”.

Update 9 June

In case anyone wants to know more about Moderna’s Omicron vaccine, see here.

Try not to Laugh at Moderna's "Omicron Vaccine"