Japan's Second State of Emergency

The Sun Dance Effect Strikes Again

On Jan 7th 2021, the second State of Emergency (SoE) was declared in Greater Tokyo (Tokyo, Kanagawa, Chiba, and Saitama) after Prof Hiroshi Nishiura, who previously predicted up to 420,000 deaths in the first wave, presented the projection for Tokyo below. During this SoE, bars and restaurants were ordered to close at 20:00, but other businesses and schools stayed open.

(Image from https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/photo/36810039)

Prime Minister Suga later expanded the SoE to Tochigi, Gufu, Aichi, Kyoto, Hyogo, Osaka, and Fukuoka and later extended it claiming that because daily reported cases had come down after the SoE was declared, the SoE had brought down cases.

However, the same as the first SoE, the second SoE was declared after actual infections had peaked. Suga might as well have claimed his dance at 6:00 am had helped cause the sun to rise.

[Figures by Hiroshi Nishiura (yes, him again) from https://www.mhlw.go.jp/content/10900000/000771023.pdf)]

The below graph compares weekly cases per 100,000 in the prefectures where the SoE was declared on 1/7 (Tokyo, Chiba, Saitama, Kanagawa), on 1/14 (Tochigi, Gifu, Aichi, Osaka, Kyoto, Hyogo, Fukuoka), and not declared despite weekly cases exceeding the 25-per-100,000 threshold for a SoE (Miyazaki, Kumamoto, Okinawa). [Data from https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/special/coronavirus/data/]

Well, at least I saved money by not going out in the evening.