Year-on-year mortality increases: Japan’s new normal
The national demographic data for September is now out. It shows all-cause deaths were lower than in August (yay!) but 9.8% (11,334) higher than in September 2021 (boo!).
We’ll have to wait another month for the national data for October, but local governments release their data earlier, so we can get a peek at what’s to come (thanks to minimal_125 for the graphs). First is Yokohama, Japan’s second largest city, which shows a 12% year-on-year (YoY) increase in October.
Next is Osaka, Japan’s third largest city, which shows a 15.2% YoY increase.
Other cities show similar YoY increases for October, so we can expect the overall national data to be similar. In case you were wondering, similar numbers of vaccine doses were administered nationwide in September and October, just over 7 million in each month.
In contrast, there were far more Covid-related deaths in September than October, approx 5000 vs 1000. Of course, these numbers come nowhere near explaining the large YoY increases even before considering that about half of people counted as Covid deaths die from other causes.
And the overcounting of Covid-related deaths seems to be becoming more common. Both reported Covid cases and deaths have been rising in sync in November, unlike every previous wave where deaths lagged cases, as you’d expect. This means that either (1) Covid has become a much faster acting disease in the past few months or (2) most deaths are people who tested positive just before (or after) dying of other causes. Am I the only one who thinks (2) is the more logical explanation?
It’d be nice to know how many of these recent deaths were among the over 6.5 million people who’ve had their fifth shot. But there’s a technical hitch that stops us from finding out. Apparently, the HER-SYS reporting system doesn’t have a 5-dose option for vax status yet.
That’s right. Until HER-SYS is upgraded to have a 5-dose option, reporting medical personnel will just have to treat the vax status of 5-jabbers the same way the government treats the cause of Japan’s high all-cause mortality in 2022: unclear.
Well, it’s not the first time the HER-SYS reporting system has conveniently failed at accurately recording vax status. At least this time it’s the jabbed numbers being obscured rather than the unjabbed numbers being padded. I guess that’s progress.
Great posts in the past. This data shows deaths peak about 28 days after daily vaccinations peak in Aug 2022. Looks like a second wave of deaths associated with increased daily vaccinations coming soon. Proof Positive of vaccine/gene therapy harm?
Thanks for the good and comprehensive summary.
When the excess is calculated, do you know what years are being used as the baseline?