Keep your mask on. Another wave is on its way!
Now that it’s one month since the government lifted its universal-masking request, I had hoped that Japanese media would shut up about masks. And now that it’s one month before Covid-19 is finally downgraded, I had also hoped that Japanese experts would stop producing garbage-in garbage-out modelling of future infection waves. However…
The moral of the story: never hope.
So what exactly does the GIGO modelling predict this time? From The Yomiuri Shimbun.
A research team at Nagoya Institute of Technology has used artificial intelligence (AI) to predict the number of future coronavirus cases in Tokyo. Their results predict that new infections will peak in Tokyo from early to mid-May. The peak number of daily cases (7-day average) is predicted to be lower than in the 8th wave, and the higher the rate of mask-wearing, which has been an individual decision since mid-March, the lower the peak will be.
Three patterns of mask compliance were estimated: 20%, half, and the same as before masking was left to individual judgment [i.e., 99%].
So that’s the garbage-in. Let’s see the garbage-out. The below graph shows the estimates, with 20% mask compliance being the solid line, half being the dashed line, and as before being the dotted line.
If 20% of people wear masks, the number of new cases will peak around May 9 at about 8,300, or 48% of the eight wave peak (17,423 people). If half wear masks, cases will peak at about 4,600 people (26% of the 8th wave) around May 14, and if mask compliance is the same as before the request relaxation, cases will peak at about 2,600 around May 9 (15% of the 8th wave).
Er, if masks work as well as the model claims, why the hell would cases be half as high with 20% mask compliance as they were with 99% mask compliance in December? And why would the same level of masking as in December lead to 85% fewer cases in May? Are masks 85% more effective in certain months?
But this does help to answer a question I was asking myself: How would the experts and media explain the lack change in the daily case numbers if mask compliance noticeably goes down between 13th March, when the mask request was lifted, and 8th May, when the daily case numbers stop being reported?
The answer was surprisingly simple: Avoid having to explain anything by making sure mask compliance doesn’t go down very much. And it hasn’t.
As always, astute observations.
Stop asking yourself pesky questions!
More fun for me. I will roam the streets and call every able-bodied male "neutered." They will do nothing because I am right. I highly recommend it. They will hold their heads down in shame. If I get tired, I will get a lawn chair and a few beers and sit on the corner and do the same thing. To prove my higher testosterone count, I will get down on the ground and start doing push ups. "One, Two, Three, Four. You are a mask whore." Repeat. I am going to get buff with all these push-ups. Now , everybody: "One, Two, Three, Four. You are a mask whore." "One, Two, Three, Four. You are a mask whore." I feel like Billy Blanks.