Mandatory Covid tests for travelers from China: follow the political science

The Japanese government ended 2022 by mandating tests upon arrival for anyone who’d recently been in mainland China. The utter pointlessness of this policy is summed up in the below headline the day after it came into effect.

92 people test positive for Covid at airport screening, 90 of whom had been in China. 106,412 domestic cases reported.

So people who’d been in China made up fewer than 0.1% of Japan’s reported cases on New Year’s Eve. And in case that weren’t underwhelming enough, 78 of the 92 positive cases were asymptomatic. Of the 14 symptomatic cases, 13 had been in China and had symptoms including sore throats.

If you’re rolling your eyes at these numbers, the Chinese government agrees with you. It is also in a position to respond in kind. From Kyodo.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said at a press conference on Tuesday entry restriction measures only targeting China "lack scientific basis" and that Beijing will "take corresponding measures in accordance with the principle of reciprocity."

It’s a bit rich for the Chinese government to criticise other countries for implementing excessive Covid restrictions, but they have a point. Moreover, mainland Chinese accounted for 36.8% of tourist spending in Japan in 2019, so a rational response considering Japan’s economic problems would be to welcome Chinese tourists back, not treat them like biohazards.

Now, if the Japanese government is really interested in protecting the health of the Japanese public, it should spend less effort annoying the Chinese and more effort trying to find out why all-cause mortality in Japan was so high in 2022…

…and why there is no longer a lag between the rise and fall of reported Covid cases and deaths. I won’t hold my breath waiting for answers.

Reported Covid cases: orange. Reported Covid deaths: brown.

Of course, the Chinese are also unhappy about Japan declaring China to be its “greatest strategic challenge” in its updated defense-related documents and revising its national security strategy to include “counterstrike capability” (i.e., long-range missiles). In contrast, the US government is thrilled with Japan’s changes and has also introduced testing requirements for visitors from China. If you’re thinking the testing requirements aren’t about health, you’re not alone. From the same Kyodo article as above.

China said Tuesday it plans to take countermeasures for COVID-19 entry restrictions targeting travelers from the Asian country announced by a number of nations, saying Beijing "firmly opposes" the practice of manipulating coronavirus control measures to achieve political goals.

So I guess Japan’s decision to single out travelers from China may have a point after all.

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