Mental model: ridiculous study claims Covid jabs prevented 8.5 million infections in Tokyo
Garbage in, garbage out, that’s what modelling is all about
After previously churning out a fantasy study claiming the Covid shots prevented 63.3 million infections and 354,00 deaths in Japan during the Delta wave, theoretical epidemiologist Hiroshi Nishiura has now focused his overactive imagination upon vaccine effectiveness in the first Omicron wave in Tokyo. The study in BMC Infectious Diseases is titled “Assessing the COVID-19 vaccination program during the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) epidemic in early 2022, Tokyo”.
The present study assessed the population impacts of a vaccination program during the sixth wave caused by BA.1 and BA.2 from January to May 2022, in Tokyo.
Now, looking at Figure 1, a vaccine sceptic might conclude that neither the first two shots nor the boosters given during the study period did much to stop the spread.
But Nishiura et al. open up the sludge pipe of science to drown anti-vaxers in an overwhelming effluence of counterfactual data.
The population-level impact by vaccine dose is illustrated in Fig. 2. The total impact was estimated at approximately 8.5–9.0 million infections averted by the end of May 2022. The direct effects differed between the programs; 2.6 million infections were prevented by the primary series plus booster program, and 0.6 million infections were prevented by the booster program alone. The indirect impact was obtained by subtracting the direct effect from the total effect, and the proportion of infections indirectly prevented was estimated to be a 70% and 93% total risk reduction owing to the primary series plus booster program and the booster program alone, respectively.
So the boosters directly prevented only 0.6 million infections but indirectly prevented 7.9 million. Science, banzai!
But if you think those numbers are are good to be true, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
The transmission model allowed us to calculate the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the scenario in which the vaccination program had not taken place. Table 2 shows the age-dependent number of infections prevented by vaccination; these values represent the total impact of vaccination caused by direct and indirect effects.
Nishiura et al. seem to have included the wrong numbers for averted cases since the total for all ages greatly exceeds 8.5 million. Rather than just the averted cases, the numbers appear to show the total counterfactual infections, i.e., observed infections plus averted infections. That this error remains in the published paper gives you a good idea of how seriously the authors and peer-reviewers took their work. But this embarrassing oversight isn’t the main problem with these numbers.
That’s because 1,375,249 infections among people aged 0-9 is a bit high when you consider there are only about 1,028,000 people aged 0-9 in Tokyo.
And 1,324,726 infections among people aged 10-19 is is a bit high when you consider there are only about about 1,072,00 people aged 10-19 in Tokyo.
And 2,264,998 infections among people aged 20-29 is is a bit high when you consider there are only about 1,755,000 people aged 20-29 in Tokyo.
And 2,267,999 infections among people aged 30-39 is is a bit high when you consider there are only about 1,885,000 people aged 30-39 in Tokyo.
And 2,265,627 infections among people aged 40-49 is is a bit high when you consider there are only 2,133,000 people aged 40-49 in Tokyo1.
Even by the low standards required for pro-vax studies to pass through peer-review, this paper is such a joke you’d be forgiven for wondering if some of the authors had a bet to see whether the peer-reviewers would question the plausibility of these results. Of course, the smart money would’ve been on peer-reviewers credulously accepting the nonsense numbers, the same as other reviewers have done for countless other dodgy papers that comply with the establishment narrative about the necessity and effectiveness of both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions.
The trouble with Hiroshi
Back in 2019, Hiroshi Nishiura was an academic toiling away in an obscure field. But thanks to Covid, he been a household name in Japan for almost four years. Moreover, he’s found himself an easy gig. All he has to do to get his face on TV is input a few made up numbers into a computer and present whatever comes out as “research results”. Here he is on public broadcaster NHK last month promoting his previous study claiming 50% of the population would’ve be infected if not for the jabs during the Delta wave.
Nishiura’s job is made easier by the fact that, unlike a serious scientist, he doesn’t have to worry about things like predictive validity. Instead, his work is given plenty of media coverage because of, not despite, it having less relationship with reality than most of Salvador Dali’s artwork. It’s a wonder he hasn’t applied his skills to climate modelling too.
His continued output leaves me in no doubt that Nishiura would happily relive the Covid years all over again and would even put them on an endless loop if he could. And sadly for not only the Japanese but also everyone else on earth, he’s not the only one.
Hat-tip to Prof. Seiji Kojima for pointing this out. Tokyo’s official population numbers for 2022 can be found in Japanese here.
Hey Hiroshi! Why am I still alive? Why haven't I gotten sick in 4 and a half years? And, why do you make more money than me. People who tell the truth should get paid more than people who lie for a living. I know some homeless guy named Hiroshi and he has been more accurate than you. His words: "All this Covid stuff is bullshit!" End homelessness! Donate all of the kickbacks you are getting and give it to the homeless version of your namesake. Then punch yourself in the head 12 times.
We live in "The Truman Show," don't we?! Call me cynical but the peer-review system is corrupt and worthless, part of the problem. Thank you for calling the liars out and for speaking truth for those with ears to hear.