Just when I thought I might never have to write about the Covid-19 Pandemic in Japan again, the Nature journal Scientific Reports publishes a hallucinogenically ludicrous counterfactual modelling study co-authored by Hiroshi Nishiura, the Japanese government’s go-to guy for epidemiological modelling madness.
I had to look up the definition for the word "Counterfactual" because, though I do pride myself on my vocabulary, that's a new one to me. Here is what the definition is:
thinking about what did not happen but could have happened, or relating to this kind of thinking:
Example: Thoughts about how an embarrassing event might have turned out differently are known to psychologists as counterfactual thinking.
So in other words, this entire article is a fantasy, is admitted to be a fantasy and yet, we are supposed to believe it. Yeah...right!
Our only hope now is that there are enough people in Japan who are awake to these obvious lies and will call them out should the government try to issue pandemic panic once again!
"So in other words, this entire article is a fantasy, is admitted to be a fantasy and yet, we are supposed to believe it."
Yeah, that sums it up. The beauty is that you can come up with any counter-factual results you want provided you input the right assumptions into the model. The difficulty is keeping a straight face while presenting the results.
In my experience, people like this actually believe what they are saying. Yes, they're just that dumb. The University system knocks any critical thinking skills right out of their heads.
100% correct. These are the same people who believe that double-blind placebo trials aren't required for any vaccine because vaccines are ASSUMED to be safe and effective and therefore, it is unethical to withhold them for the purposes of testing. This is what Dr Gavin Frost, then head of the Australian Department of Health told me but I've heard and read these words often before. Magical thinking of the most unscientific kind.
That was the standard mantra in 2021: "Vaccines are safe and effective, so these Covid vaccines are safe and effective. Therefore, any heart issues or menstrual irregularities that occur after the shots are completely coincidental, because the jabs are safe."
Don’t bet on it. Last night I asked my ten year old if they are still having to eat in silence, Mokushoku. The answer is not only “yes” but that they have “always had to Mokushoku AND wear masks while serving lunch, picking up and dropping off their lunch trays.” My kids were not enrolled at this school prior to the panic so we can not use experience to confirm or debunk this statement but I seriously doubt the truthfulness of this statement.
I believe that instead of people waking up, we will see a rewriting of prepanic history to conform with our current surreality.
You will notice any study that pushes puedo-science to advance a political project uses modeling or observational studies. Thay are by far the easiest to manipulate and the most difficult for the layman to refute.
True. Therefore I concentrate on the vaccines being poisons/foreign bodies and the fact that it has never been a good idea to poison oneself for good health.
...but most people do not understand basic science, or stats......no less the math behind it. They only have "faith" in "science", without actual understanding.
It is accurate for many countries. The model “fails” (cannot predict for Japan). The reason is that the model uses day to day records of deaths. In Japan there were so few deaths the algorithm did not work. The first recorded death was 25Feb, and in the first wave of COVID the peak deaths occurred on 4 May with 49 deaths, and total deaths by 26 June were the very low number of 969.
Your model is impressively accurate. It shows that when done in good faith, epidemiological modeling can be informative. But we know that the German government requested a model to justify lockdown, and the "experts" gladly complied (https://greatgameindia.com/germany-hired-scientists-fake-coronavirus-model/). I assume the same is true for Ferguson in the UK and Nishiura in Japan.
As for the low Covid mortality in 2020/2021 in Japan, I can only think that immunological factors were the cause (https://guygin.substack.com/p/why-has-japan-had-so-few-covid-deaths-60c). But Omicron and the boosters seemed to overcome Japan's X Factor from 2022 onward. The same is true in South Korea and Taiwan, which I think supports my hypothesis.
I wrote an "Influenzas like illness" (ILI) that occurred early 2020. Before the politics and before vaccine release. From mid 2020 all official data is questionable.
Based on a recent release of B & M Foundn data up to Oct 3023.
Donations total $82.9B. USA $50.6B, UK $3.5B and Japan $0.32B ($319,561,167)
Donations to Japan include: Japanese Government $160,548,868, Global Health Innovative Technology $94,910,000, Nagasaki University of Tropical Medicine $17,535,120. Asahi Shimbun $699,600 (Nov 2022).
Japan, like the US has multiple definitions for “Covid Death”. Prior to the Olympics being off limits to spectators, it was more common for doctors to use the method used for all other diseases in determining if Covid was the cause and this produced fewer Covid deaths. While many doctors many still be using this method, the national public health agency (I do not recall off the top of my head the exact governmental body.) issued guidance stipulating that the method supported by US doctor Birx by used. This greatly increased the number of Covid cases and deaths.
Not only do we have different definitions of Covid death between different prefectures, but the definition has changed with time with in at least some institutions. You will get nothing but garbage out of any model but they will only give you garbage to put into it.
Why should Japan know better? They were looked up to by all others as doing everything correct for Covid; masking, hand sanitizing, remote education and work, all of which are detrimental and have long been known to be. It was just three weeks ago, maybe four, that my med students complained to the school that I do not wear a mask. MDs told me I must wear a mask for online classes and the students do.
Thus, I am at a compete loss as to why Japan should have known better.
The US B&M Foundation made many donations to Japan based groups including $24,000,000 to Tokyo based Global Health Innovative Technology Fund April 2023.
If you read only Japanese media, you'd never have any idea these was anything dodgy about Gates. Hell, the government awarded him its highest honour, the Grand Cordon of the Order of the Rising Sun
I wondered why the BMGF grants to Japan were low compared to other countries. This might be because the funds are funnelled through JSI Research & Training Institute, Inc. $11,317,202 since 2000 and $1,602,740 since 2019.
Modeling without a system of deterministic laws or theorems is nothing more than a game. Medicine, pharmacology, and biology do not have deterministic laws or theorems like physics. What there is is a family of empirical rules and statistical rules of thumb. Even though we know the sequence of genes, we still only partially understand what functions and effects each part and its combinations bring about.
I understand this because I'm Japanese, but Nishiura probably doesn't understand that considering his educational background. Or maybe they know but are just making arguments to get paid.
MD David N. Fisman of the University of Toronto has also created an epidemiological model that is advantageous for promoting vaccination.
Rule number one on modeling states that all models are wrong. Some, however, are useful.
I have argued this point with my esteemed colleagues over climate change for decades to no avail. It comes as no surprise that modeling is given far too much credibility with anything related to Covid.
I had to look up the definition for the word "Counterfactual" because, though I do pride myself on my vocabulary, that's a new one to me. Here is what the definition is:
thinking about what did not happen but could have happened, or relating to this kind of thinking:
Example: Thoughts about how an embarrassing event might have turned out differently are known to psychologists as counterfactual thinking.
So in other words, this entire article is a fantasy, is admitted to be a fantasy and yet, we are supposed to believe it. Yeah...right!
Our only hope now is that there are enough people in Japan who are awake to these obvious lies and will call them out should the government try to issue pandemic panic once again!
"So in other words, this entire article is a fantasy, is admitted to be a fantasy and yet, we are supposed to believe it."
Yeah, that sums it up. The beauty is that you can come up with any counter-factual results you want provided you input the right assumptions into the model. The difficulty is keeping a straight face while presenting the results.
In my experience, people like this actually believe what they are saying. Yes, they're just that dumb. The University system knocks any critical thinking skills right out of their heads.
The only hope for Japan is that the MoH swapped the venomous vials with saline vials.
I don't know how much we can hope for something like that, but 🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻
Too much damage done through other anticovid actions for even this to stave off disaster.
Wish magic.
100% correct. These are the same people who believe that double-blind placebo trials aren't required for any vaccine because vaccines are ASSUMED to be safe and effective and therefore, it is unethical to withhold them for the purposes of testing. This is what Dr Gavin Frost, then head of the Australian Department of Health told me but I've heard and read these words often before. Magical thinking of the most unscientific kind.
That was the standard mantra in 2021: "Vaccines are safe and effective, so these Covid vaccines are safe and effective. Therefore, any heart issues or menstrual irregularities that occur after the shots are completely coincidental, because the jabs are safe."
Has this changed? Those in power are still saying this.
Speaking of "effective"... https://voza0db.substack.com/p/morons-just-dont-get-it-996
Don’t bet on it. Last night I asked my ten year old if they are still having to eat in silence, Mokushoku. The answer is not only “yes” but that they have “always had to Mokushoku AND wear masks while serving lunch, picking up and dropping off their lunch trays.” My kids were not enrolled at this school prior to the panic so we can not use experience to confirm or debunk this statement but I seriously doubt the truthfulness of this statement.
I believe that instead of people waking up, we will see a rewriting of prepanic history to conform with our current surreality.
He sold his soul to Satan.
イエス wept.
You will notice any study that pushes puedo-science to advance a political project uses modeling or observational studies. Thay are by far the easiest to manipulate and the most difficult for the layman to refute.
And they are presented as fact. The same is true of climate models.
True. Therefore I concentrate on the vaccines being poisons/foreign bodies and the fact that it has never been a good idea to poison oneself for good health.
https://baldmichael.substack.com/p/why-vaccines-do-not-work-in-a-nutshell
Easy as hell to refute, all models are wrong. End of story.
...but most people do not understand basic science, or stats......no less the math behind it. They only have "faith" in "science", without actual understanding.
Recent events prove you correct. When they go full throttle on climate, we are doomed.
I have published a model for COVID-19 deaths here: https://doi.org/10.2147/IJGM.S435975
It is accurate for many countries. The model “fails” (cannot predict for Japan). The reason is that the model uses day to day records of deaths. In Japan there were so few deaths the algorithm did not work. The first recorded death was 25Feb, and in the first wave of COVID the peak deaths occurred on 4 May with 49 deaths, and total deaths by 26 June were the very low number of 969.
The much higher death rates in 2021/22/23 are hard to explain. See: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/
Your model is impressively accurate. It shows that when done in good faith, epidemiological modeling can be informative. But we know that the German government requested a model to justify lockdown, and the "experts" gladly complied (https://greatgameindia.com/germany-hired-scientists-fake-coronavirus-model/). I assume the same is true for Ferguson in the UK and Nishiura in Japan.
As for the low Covid mortality in 2020/2021 in Japan, I can only think that immunological factors were the cause (https://guygin.substack.com/p/why-has-japan-had-so-few-covid-deaths-60c). But Omicron and the boosters seemed to overcome Japan's X Factor from 2022 onward. The same is true in South Korea and Taiwan, which I think supports my hypothesis.
Agreed, except that Omicron was made up. This explains but is ridiculing what the powers that be have done.
https://alphaandomegacloud.wordpress.com/2021/12/02/various-variants-covid-19/
It is primarily the vaccines causing increase in deaths as that's what poisons will do.
I wrote an "Influenzas like illness" (ILI) that occurred early 2020. Before the politics and before vaccine release. From mid 2020 all official data is questionable.
Some recently available data:
Based on a recent release of B & M Foundn data up to Oct 3023.
Donations total $82.9B. USA $50.6B, UK $3.5B and Japan $0.32B ($319,561,167)
Donations to Japan include: Japanese Government $160,548,868, Global Health Innovative Technology $94,910,000, Nagasaki University of Tropical Medicine $17,535,120. Asahi Shimbun $699,600 (Nov 2022).
Japan, like the US has multiple definitions for “Covid Death”. Prior to the Olympics being off limits to spectators, it was more common for doctors to use the method used for all other diseases in determining if Covid was the cause and this produced fewer Covid deaths. While many doctors many still be using this method, the national public health agency (I do not recall off the top of my head the exact governmental body.) issued guidance stipulating that the method supported by US doctor Birx by used. This greatly increased the number of Covid cases and deaths.
Not only do we have different definitions of Covid death between different prefectures, but the definition has changed with time with in at least some institutions. You will get nothing but garbage out of any model but they will only give you garbage to put into it.
I am truly disappointed. Japan should know better, but money talks; reason walks.
Why should Japan know better? They were looked up to by all others as doing everything correct for Covid; masking, hand sanitizing, remote education and work, all of which are detrimental and have long been known to be. It was just three weeks ago, maybe four, that my med students complained to the school that I do not wear a mask. MDs told me I must wear a mask for online classes and the students do.
Thus, I am at a compete loss as to why Japan should have known better.
The US B&M Foundation made many donations to Japan based groups including $24,000,000 to Tokyo based Global Health Innovative Technology Fund April 2023.
If you read only Japanese media, you'd never have any idea these was anything dodgy about Gates. Hell, the government awarded him its highest honour, the Grand Cordon of the Order of the Rising Sun
https://www.arabnews.jp/en/japan/article_78597/
The only cordon that Bill Gates should have is the one around his neck.
I wondered why the BMGF grants to Japan were low compared to other countries. This might be because the funds are funnelled through JSI Research & Training Institute, Inc. $11,317,202 since 2000 and $1,602,740 since 2019.
P.S. Love your posts on all topics. Watch NHK tv News every day, for the lovely images and stories, but you add the reality.
OMFG. Not again.
THEORETICAL epidemiology.
His talk is all talk. Imagination.
Made up out of thin air. The kind that emits from his hinder parts.
In the case of his COVID Theory.
Theory is only one component of a hypothesis.
Where was the proof?
There was no proof.
IQs have plummeted.
A load of hot air from Hiroshi Nishiura. I like to play with words. The best anagram I can come up with of his name so far is:
hi hi hi or Sir Anus
And these goatfuckers just won't died or are culled! Clearly they didn't took the m[iracle]RNA toxic spew jab!
I see you have your own version of Neil Ferguson. I am so sorry.
https://alphaandomegacloud.wordpress.com/2022/07/02/neil-ferguson-how-did-his-covid-19-statistics-fool-the-world/
And yes, we will have to keep going on Covid until the whole scam is put to death.
Modeling without a system of deterministic laws or theorems is nothing more than a game. Medicine, pharmacology, and biology do not have deterministic laws or theorems like physics. What there is is a family of empirical rules and statistical rules of thumb. Even though we know the sequence of genes, we still only partially understand what functions and effects each part and its combinations bring about.
I understand this because I'm Japanese, but Nishiura probably doesn't understand that considering his educational background. Or maybe they know but are just making arguments to get paid.
MD David N. Fisman of the University of Toronto has also created an epidemiological model that is advantageous for promoting vaccination.
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/unvaxed-ties-pfizer-new-research-study-flawed/?utm_id=20231222
Rule number one on modeling states that all models are wrong. Some, however, are useful.
I have argued this point with my esteemed colleagues over climate change for decades to no avail. It comes as no surprise that modeling is given far too much credibility with anything related to Covid.